TEST
Some Events, Deadlines & Personalities Affecting UK-EU Negotiations on Brexit
Updated 23/03/2017; items added or corrected since previous update on 9/03/17 shown in red.
Date | Events in UK | Events outside UK | Implications for Politics & Business |
23/06/16 | Referendum on membership of EU | Unexpected by all parties; major uncertainty House prices and £ fall sharply; FTSE rises; Economy steady - and better than expected | |
24/06/16 | David Cameron resigns as Prime Minister and Leader of Conservative Party | ||
25/06/16 | Didier Seeuws to lead Council team | Chief of Staff to Herman von Rompuy Spokesperson for Guy Verhofstadt | |
04/07/16 | Nigel Farage resigns as Leader of UKIP | In theory, job completed …. | |
13/07/16 | Theresa May appointed Prime Minister Boris Johnson appointed Foreign Secretary David Davis to lead Exiting EU team Liam Fox to lead Trade negotiations | No plan in place, little expertise available Differing priorities for Brexit Process not fully understood Trade possibilities unknown | |
27/07/16 | Michel Barnier to lead Commission team | Strong trade negotiator | |
08/09/16 | Guy Verhofstadt to lead Parliament team | Strong supporter of federal Europe | |
12/09/16 | David Cameron resigns as MP for Witney | Forces by-election in safe Conservative seat | |
16/09/16 | Diane James elected Leader of UKIP | Internal doubts over direction of UKIP … | |
24/09/16 | Jeremy Corbyn re-confirmed asLeader of Labour Party | Labour Party appears in decline, offers no coherent opposition to Conservatives … | |
05/10/16 | Diane James resigns as Leader of UKIP Nigel Farage returns as Leader of UKIP | UKIP in organisational free-fall … Severe doubts over funding and future …. | |
07/10/16 | Jean-Claude Juncker speech at the 20th anniversary of the Jacques Delors Institute in Paris 'for an ambitious Europe': 'The EU is, at least in part, in an existential crisis … we should stop talking of a United States of Europe … Europe is a community of values' | The first statement appears to be true. With the election of a new President in the USA, the second statement is also true. With changes in political direction in several EU Member States, the final statement of a long-held belief is becoming very hard to sustain | |
19/10/16 | Hilary Benn elected Chair of the House of Commons Exiting the EU Committee | Labour leadership of key Select Committee | |
20/10/16 | By-election in Witney (David Cameron) | 19% swing from Conservatives to LibDems | |
25/10/16 | Zac Goldsmith resigns as MP for Richmond (over Heathrow expansion) | Forces by-election in safe Conservative seat - but previously held by LibDems and voters strongly for 'Remain'; potential loss to 16-seat Conservative majority | |
27/10/16 | Nissan announce investment plan for UK | Positive for Brexit - but guarantees unknown | |
28/10/16 | Belfast Court dismisses 2 challenges aimed to exempt N. Ireland peace process from Brexit; does not restrict further challenges | Deal brokered and supported by EU and thought to be essential to continuing peace; tragedy for everyone if this failed | |
03/11/16 | Cross-party Exiting the EU Committee meets for 1st time and starts public enquiry on negotiation objectives, priorities and needs | Opportunity for input from UK civil society, in particular business representatives … | |
03/11/16 | High Court judgement on start of Article 50 | Parliament's role confirmed; £ rises | |
04/11/16 | Stephen Phillips resigns as MP for Sleaford & North Hykeham (over handling of Brexit) | Forces by-election in safe Conservative seat in Brexit-supporting area but still of concern | |
05/11/16 | EU to investigate Nissan support deal … | Potential problem while still in EU … | |
08/11/16 | Nicola Sturgeon to participate in appeal to Supreme Court on role Scottish Parliament | Proposes pre-vote by Scottish Parliament - and keeps alive possibility of devolution | |
09/11/16 | Donald Trump elected President of US | Major political, financial and economic uncertainty, in and outside USA, with possible repercussions for both UK and EU on growth, international trade, security and relations with Mexico, Russia, China, Israel, Mid-East and Europe | |
12/11/16 | Nigel Farage meets Donald Trump; offers to help mediate with Theresa May … | Offer rejected by Downing Street; some Brexit supporters support idea … | |
14/11/16 | Rumen Radev elected President of Bulgaria | Boyco Borisov and centre-right government resigns, forcing general election early 2017 | |
14/11/16 | Consultants Deloitte report 'chaos, lack of single plan, civil servants overloaded and infighting between ministers' in efforts to determine opening strategy for Brexit | Denied by Downing Street; widely assumed to be true. Number of extra civil servants said to be required in UK approximately equal to number currently employed in Brussels … | |
14/11/16 | UK to remain member of Europol - at least until conclusion of Brexit negotiations … | Due to lapse in May 2017, now renewed to meet ongoing security threats … | |
15/11/16 | Supreme Court Judge Lady Hale notes legal complexity of starting Article 50 process … | Article 50 drafted by Lord Kerr in 2003 - and intended to be difficult to implement … | |
16/11/16 | 1st public hearing of cross-party Exiting the EU Committee - focusing on the timetable and processes for negotiations and on the resources currently available in the UK | Streamed online with evidence from Hannah White, Institute for Government; Simon Fraser, Foreign Office; Catherine Barnard, Cambridge University | |
16/11/16 | Oxford Dictionaries vote 'post-truth' as 'international word of the year' for 2016 | Key to understanding events in the UK and USA - and possibly future events in EU: 'relating to circumstances in which objective facts are less influential in shaping public opinion than emotional appeals' | |
23/11/16 | 2nd public hearing of cross-party Exiting the EU Committee - focusing on expert opinion on the timetable, security and trade issues | Streamed online with evidence from Robin Niblett, Chatham House; Stephen Booth, Open Europe; Shankar Singham, Legatum Institute (poverty to prosperity measures) | |
23/11/16 | Chancellor Philip Hammond delivers UK Autumn Statement; additional borrowing of £122bn over 5 years to maintain UK growth | Presented as a realistic assessment of long-term effect of pro-Brexit vote; short term gains outweighed by longer term losses … | |
24/11/16 | Martin Schulz to leave EP and to return to national politics in Germany … | Unlikely to affect position of EP on Brexit; possible challenge to Angela Merkel? | |
25/11/16 | Institute of Fiscal Studies forecast low wage growth at least until 2021 - 'dreadful decade' | Denied by Downing Street and leading Brexit supporters; probably correct … | |
27/11/16 | Francois Fillon wins nomination for French centre-right Republicans in President election | Seen as strongest opponent for Marine Le Pen; immediate opposition from trade unions | |
28/11/16 | Paul Nuttall elected as new head of UKIP | UKIP to challenge Labour as UK opposition party; Nigel Farage stands down again … | |
28/11/16 | British Influence mount legal challenge over UK membership EEA v membership of EU | Further indication of complexity of negotiations … | |
29/11/16 | Radioactive waste at Culham raises question of long term UK membership of Euratom … | UK contributes to and benefits from nuclear fusion research programme … | |
29/11/16 | Possible insight into UK policy on Brexit gained from photograph of notes carried by aide; "have cake and eat it" phrase used … | Denied by Downing Street as being official policy; assumed to be indicative of simplistic view of possible negotiation outcomes … | |
30/11/16 | 3rd public hearing of cross-party Exiting the EU Committee - focusing on opportunities and risks for UK businesses, transitional arrangements, regulatory divergence, skills | Streamed online with evidence from Gary Campkin, TheCity UK; Virginia Acha, ABPI (Pharmaceutical Industry); Fergus McReynolds, EEF (Manufacturing Industry) | |
01/12/16 | By-election in Richmond (Zac Goldsmith) | LibDems win seat, cut government majority, reduce likelihood of early election; signs of electorate becoming irritated by elections and polarised on Brexit v. normal party politics | |
02/12/16 | Birgitta Jonsdottir leader of Pirate Party asked to form government in Iceland … | Minority anti-establishment party asked after two larger parties fail to agree … | |
04/12/16 | Alexander Van der Bellen, from the Green Party, elected President of Austria | Norbert Hofer representing the Far-right loses (again); result welcomed generally | |
04/12/16 | Matteo Renzi loses referendum on reform of Italian constitution by large margin; resigns as Prime Minister | Outcome to be determined by President Sergio Mattarella; euro volatile, bank shares weak, economic growth remains low | |
05/12/16 | Supreme Court start hearing on Article 50 and role of UK Parliament (and the role of the devolved Regions, in particular Scotland and N. Ireland) v. Executive (Theresa May) | Streamed online by BBC; will finally settle UK legal process and may affect timing and content of UK negotiations; £ and FTSE will reflect concerns or perceived opportunities… | |
07/12/16 | Parliament vote by large majority to respect Government timetable for Article 50 subject to scrutiny of negotiation proposals | Suggests that Parliament will not go against referendum result - but will insist on detailed scrutiny prior to and during negotiations | |
07/12/16 | 4th public hearing of cross-party Exiting the EU Committee - focusing on business perspectives, post Brexit environment, rights of employees, and need for economy to work for everyone | Streamed online with evidence from Carolyn Fairburn, CBI; Frances O'Grady, BTUC; John Longworth (formerly BCC) Leave Means Leave | |
08/12/16 | By-election in Sleaford & North Hykeham (Stephen Phillips) | Safe Conservative seat easily retained - but Labour pushed into 4th place by UKIP (who lost share) and LibDems (who gained share) | |
08/12/16 | 5th public hearing of cross-party Exiting the EU Committee in Sunderland - focusing on the priorities, opportunities and challenges for the North East region of England | Streamed online with evidence from Richard Baker, NE Enterprise Partnership; John Elliott, Business for Britain; Ross Smith, NE Chamber of Commerce; Paul Watson, NE Combined Authority & Sunderland Council | |
12/12/16 | Rex Tillerson, currently CEO ExxonMobil, selected by Donald Trump as Secretary of State for US … | Likely to be difficult process of confirmation in US Senate - along with other nominees; major changes to world order and outlook … | |
12/12/16 | Paolo Gentiloni named as new Prime Minister of Italy | Elections in Italy avoided in short term, economic uncertainties remain … | |
12/12/16 | Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft Koln publishes Policy Paper 16/2016 on 'What next after Brexit'; considerations on the future relationship between the EU and UK | Analyses relative negotiating strengths, possible concessions, strategic considerations and policy recommendations | |
19/12/16 | 6th public hearing of cross-party Exiting the EU Committee in Aberdeen - focusing on the opportunities and risks for Scotland, the economy of Aberdeen, and the fishing and renewables sectors | Streamed online with evidence from Michael Keating, Aberdeen University; Deirdre Michie, Oil & Gas UK; Suzanne Burr, Thorpe Molloy Recruitment; Andrew Walker, Johnston Carmichael; Andrew Scott, Scotrenewables; Bertie Armstrong, Scottish Fishermen, Michael Bates, Scottish Seafood | |
21/12/16 | CBI publish consultation on 'Making a Success of Brexit', raising concerns for industries including aviation, restaurants, tourism, chemicals, logistics, construction, life sciences, technology … | Priorities include barrier-free relationship with most important trading partner, plans for regulation, migration, access to skills, science funding and avoidance of 'cliff-edge'; will affect inward investment to all of these | |
21/12/16 | Jamie Reed resigns as MP for Copeland (possibly over leadership of Labour Party); effective end January 2017 | Labour-held pro-Brexit constituency; marginal lead over Conservatives, with UKIP in 3rd place; major test for all parties ... | |
26/12/16 | Wilbur Ross, selected by Donald Trump as Commerce Secretary for US, reported to have advised financiers in Cyprus to adopt even more liberal financial policies 'and to use Brexit to steal trade from UK' | Comments made soon after UK referendum result and before current position proposed; however indicates difficulty of negotiating a UK-US free trade deal - or maintain any pretence of a UK-US 'special relationship'… | |
28/12/16 | John Longworth (formerly BCC, now co-chair Leave Means Leave) reports writing to all EU Chambers of Commerce asking for support for free trade deal after UK leaves EU and Single Market … | Action in name of business pro-Brexit campaign group Leave Means Leave; not indicative of views of BCC or its member organisations; no replies received at time of writing - 'as sent during festive season' | |
29/12/16 | UK Institute for Public Policy Research forecasts radical changes 2020-2030 due to Brexit, demographic change, social care needs, disruptive technologies, job losses … | Likely to apply in many countries, not just the UK; part of the continuing challenge for the EU as the gap between the well-qualified rich and the less-qualified poor increases | |
30/12/16 | Stock market index FTSE 100 7,142 new all-time high following 15% devaluation of £ following Brexit referendum in June:end of year currency rates £/$ 1.23 £/€ 1.17 | Dow Jones 19,790 just below all-time high and close to psychological 20,000 'barrier'; influenced by pre-election policy statements and tweets of President-elect Donald Trump | Weak £ improves UK competitiveness in short term but will lead to increased costs in 2017 UK wealth in GDP or GDP/capita set to fall v France (and India); contribution to EU budget will therefore also decline … |
31/12/16 | Theresa May promises to speak 'in the best interest of everyone in the UK' and to seek unity between the opposing parties; The Sun newspaper promptly blames the 'Remoaners' | Theresa May under heavy pressure from both sides of Brexit argument; generally portrayed as both closely controlling but undecided on this key question | |
03/01/17 | Sir Ivan Rogers resigns as UK Ambassador to EU citing 'muddled thinking' and 'need to speak truth to those in power' | Unexpected departure, with long letter of 'explanation' to staff in Brussels; Deputy Shan Morgan left in December for Cardiff | |
04/01/17 | Sir Tim Barrow appointed UK Ambassador to EU; formerly UK Ambassador in Moscow | Quick replacement; experienced diplomat with previous experience in Brussels | |
13/01/17 | Tristram Hunt resigns as MP for Stoke on Tent (to become Director of V&A Museum) | Labour-held strongly pro-Brexit marginal with UKIP challenging in 2nd place | |
16/01/17 | FTSE 100 reaches new all-time high 7,354 | Donald Trump (talking to Michael Gove) praises UK post-Brexit; offers trade deal once in office; expresses concerns over EU, NATO, Germany and German manufacturers | As with other public (v private) statements, difficult to evaluate or use as basis for policy decisions; clear that the world has changed, and nothing should be taken for granted…. |
16/01/17 | End of EP Presidency for Martin Schulz | Returns to German politics … | |
16/01/07 | Chancellor Philip Hammond sets out vision of UK as potential highly competitive and unrestricted free-trading low tax economy as alternative approach if no longer bound by EU (and UK) regulations and norms | Unclear whether this is a threat or a promise but would certainly be one option and, with the current decline in influence of Labour and the trade unions, should certainly be taken seriously by all parties … | |
16/01/17 | Jacques Delors Institute (Notre Europe) publishes Policy Paper 183 on 'Brexit and the EU Budget: Threat or Opportunity?' | Analyses the potential shortfall of around €10 billion in EU budget following Brexit and possible consequences and remedies | |
01/17 | Institute of International and European Affairs publishes 'Brexit; A Status Report' | Analyses status and implications for the UK and in detail for the economy of Ireland | |
17/01/17 | Theresa May sets out priorities for Brexit; UK 'must leave EU and single market' - but aims for mutually beneficial free trade deal, outside the existing customs union. £ strengthens against $ and €; FTSE 100 falls sharply, then recovers; inflation increases to 1.6% | Speech does recognise that solution must be mutually beneficial - and that lose-lose is the worst possible outcome. Reactions, in and outside UK, range from cautious welcome to continuing hostile. Many details still unclear. Money markets and stock exchanges likely to remain volatile for some time …. | |
17/01/17 | EP elects new President Antonio Tajani | Continuing EPP support for federal EU | |
18/01/07 | UK unemployment falls to 11-year low of 4.8%; employment stays close to record 75%; weekly earnings increase by 2.7% | IMF Christine Lagarde (and others) accept that UK economy stronger than expected but warn of many uncertainties and pain ahead ... | UK economy has indeed performed better than expected - boosting case for Brexit. Longer term outlook still very uncertain. |
19/01/17 | George Soros speaking at WEF in Davos predicts failure of Theresa May and bleak outlook for UK, EU - and US under Trump | Not always correct - but well within range of other predictions … | |
20/01/17 | Donald Trump becomes President of the US | Dispute with media over numbers attending with 'alternative facts' now available | |
22/01/17 | 1st round vote in French Socialists' primary; Benoit Hamon & Manuel Valls go through | Low turnout as neither expected to win … | |
23/01/17 | Theresa May announces new industrial policy for UK to ensure competitiveness … | Trade Union concern over future policy; no wish to follow 'Singapore' model | |
24/01/17 | Supreme Court decision by all 11 Judges on start of Article 50 process due in January; media and other opinion will focus on 'rule of law' v. 'respecting wish of the people' | Court rejects appeal by UK Government; confirms Parliament must give assent to Article 50 notification No need for separate approval by devolved administrations | |
24/01/17 | Donald Trump cancels TPP, intends to cancel TTIP and will re-negotiate NAFTA trade agreements with Mexico and Canada | Apparent end to post-war multilateral open trade and wealth generation; part of counter-productive populist 'nationalist' approach … | |
25/01/17 | Theresa May agrees to publish White Paper on Brexit objectives before Article 50 start | Objectives and strategy should become clearer before Article 50 is invoked … | |
25/01/17 | 6th public hearing of cross-party Exiting the EU Committee - focusing on Gibraltar | Chief Minister Fabian Picardo sets out the special needs of Gibraltar | |
26/01/17 | Government publishes Bill to enable Article 50 notification to leave EU and Euratom | Major challenge for Labour unity although likely to be approved overall; inclusion of Euratom is problem for UK energy strategy | |
26/01/17 | Donald Trump signs order to build wall with Mexico, possible 20% tax on imports | Peso falls; disruption to cross-border supply lines and supplies of labour and goods to US | |
27/01/17 | Theresa May addresses Republican Party and meets Donald Trump; new world role for both but continuing support for NATO … | Contact process essential but difficult to put value on agreements made; leadership role for US on any issue now in doubt | |
Donald Trump signs order to block entry to US from 5 mainly Muslim countries | Worldwide protests; petition starts to block visit to UK … | ||
28/01/17 | Theresa May meets Recap Erdogan; agrees deal to build fighter aircraft; continuing concern over human rights abuse in Turkey .. | Highlights some limited possibilities for new deals - and downsides for everyone involved; political protests increasingly likely | |
29/01/17 | Benoit Hamon elected as left-wing Socialist contender for French Presidency | Marine Le Pen, Francois Fillon and Emmanuel Macron currently lead the polls in election for President of France | |
31/01/17 | Donald Tusk letter identifies external and internal threats to EU from Russia, China, Africa (radical Islam), Turkey - and US … | ||
01/02/17 | House of Commons supports draft bill to allow Theresa May to initiate Article 50 | Large majority in broad favour (498:114); many amendments now to be debated …. | |
01/02/17 | Sir Ivan Rogers gives evidence to House of Commons European Scrutiny Committee | Committee and Chair Bill Cash critical of EU process; all soon to become redundant … | |
02/02/17 | Senate approves Rex Tillerson as Secretary of State for US … | One of very few reliable appointments, with more balanced view of world trade ... | |
03/02/17 | Government publishes White Paper on 'exit from and new relationship with the EU' | Priorities for UK set out in reasonable detail; actual agenda likely to focus on cost issues ... | |
03/02/17 | Bank of England upgrades growth forecast for UK for 2017 to 2% v 1.4% and 0.8% | Current performance helped by £ fall and expectation of new investments in US … | |
06/02/17 | BBC Study confirms strong link at ward level between level of pro-Brexit vote and low educational achievement and old age; tendency to look backwards, against change and open trade | Similar pattern noted in other countries, including USA; problem for political parties everywhere which will need to be addressed if fair, forward-looking, fact-based regulation and open trade to remain possible … | |
06/02/17 | Centre for European Reform publishes 'The €60 billion Brexit bill' by Alex Barker (Financial Times Brussels) | First detailed analysis of 'how to disentangle Britain from the EU budget' … | |
08/02/17 | House of Commons supports draft bill to allow Theresa May to initiate Article 50 | All amendments defeated; bill approved (494:122); now goes to House of Lords … | |
13/02/17 | CBI (with Clifford Chance) publishes Guide on 'The Future of Trade for the UK' | Most detailed analysis seen so far; follows on guide for SMEs published in November 2016 | |
14/02/17 | Brueghel publishes 'The UK's Brexit bill; could EU assets partially offset liabilities?' | Many counter-balancing items - not all included in Alex Barker analysis … | |
15/02/17 | Politico publishes '13 things you didn't know about Brexit' based on recent EP reports | Possible basis for EP resolution in April; indicates complexity (not always correctly) ... | |
15/02/17 | Taoiseach Enda Kelly on 'Ireland at the heart of a changing European Union' | Critical analysis for both UK and Ireland; satisfactory resolution essential for all parties | |
17/02/17 | Tony Blair says 'Brexit not inevitable …' | Reputation damaged, mixed blessing … | |
20/02/17 | House of Lords debate Article 50 bill … | Initial debate and vote … | |
23/02/17 | By-election in Copeland (Jamie Reed) | Conservative gain from Labour; UKIP last in poll; major upset for both parties | |
23/02/17 | By-election in Stoke on Trent (Tristram Hunt) | Labour hold seat; Paul Nuttall for UKIP just beats Conservative into 2nd place | |
28/02/17 | House of Lords debate Article 50 bill | Proposed amendment to stay in Single Market defeated 299:136 | |
01/03/17 | House of Lords debate Article 50 bill | Amendment to be retain rights of EU citizens in UK passed 328:256 | |
01/03/17 | Commission publishes White Paper on the "Future of Europe"; 5 scenarios for EU 27 | Input to Council Meeting on 25th March; indicates scale of problems to be resolved … | |
02/03/17 | Elections to Northern Ireland Assembly | Gains for Sinn Fein v DUP; power sharing and implications for Brexit to be agreed … | |
04/03/17 | House of Lords European Union Committee publishes 'Brexit and the EU Budget' (HL Paper 125) | First formal analysis in UK of possible costs and associated legal obligations; long-term relationships affected by decisions made … | |
05/03/17 | FT analysis suggests politics and electorates now split between those looking forward and those looking back (to an imagined past) | Suggest that maintaining the status quo no longer works (except in Germany?); Macron and Le Pen show different trends in France | |
07/03/17 | House of Lords debate Article 50 bill | Amendment to ensure meaningful vote on terms of new agreement passed 366:268 | |
07/03/17 | Earliest possibledate for Royal Assent to bill to initiate Article 50 by UK notifying European Council in Rome on 9th March | No longer possible as 2 amendments made by House of Lords; Government will now try to overturn these in House of Commons … | |
08/03/17 | Philip Hammond presents UK Budget … | Focus on education, growth, social care … | |
08/03/17 | Donald Tusk promises that EU leaders will respond within 48 hours with draft guidelines on UK notification of desire to leave the UK | General expectation of notification of intent to leave by end of March and full response by EU leaders by the end of April | |
09/03/17 | Donald Tusk confirmed in current role for 2nd mandate; only Poland votes against | Unusual situation resolved in best general interest; important to reach agreement … | |
09/03/17 | Earliest opportunity for Theresa May to give Article 50 notification of desire to leave EU | No longer possible | |
10/03/17 | House of Commons Select Committee on Foreign Affairs describes absence of any plan for 'no deal' as 'dereliction of duty' | Report examines consequences for ongoing disputes, citizen status, trading terms, gaps on regulation, common security, N Ireland … | |
12/03/17 | Friends of Europe publish 'How to (Br)exit; a guide for decision-makers' by Mogens Peter Carl (former EU Trade DG) | Recognises 'red lines' on both sides; sets out negotiating timetable and process to achieve maximum politically-possible benefits … | |
13/03/17 | Unconfirmed press report in UK suggests that Michel Barnier may not insist on early financial settlement during negotiations … | Would allow other more constructive debates to begin, with final settlement to be agreed with European Court of Auditors … | |
13/03/17 | House of Commons rejects amendments; not contested by House of Lords; bill passed | Original bill, without amendments now ready for Royal Assent … | |
13/03/17 | Nicola Sturgeon announces intent to hold a Second Referendum on independence under Section 30 of the Scotland Act in late 2018 or early 2019 | Seen as political statement unlikely to be accepted by Theresa May; highlights likely reaction to 'hard brexit' and short time-frame available to reach an acceptable agreement | |
14/03/17 | Fondation Robert Schuman launches BrexLab to monitor and analyse negotiations | New 'panel of leading experts' to comment on progress once Article 50 invoked … | |
15/03/17 | Next target date for Theresa May to give Article 50 notification of desire to leave EU | No longer possible (latest date chosen to avoid 60th Anniversary Rome celebration) | |
15/03/17 | General Election in The Netherlands | Centre-right party again wins most seats, Freedom Party under Geert Wilders fails to break through; Labour Party suffers historic defeat; seen as satisfactory outcome overall .. | |
16/03/17 | Theresa May states 'not the time for Scottish referendum' …. | Nicola Sturgeon calls this 'a democratic outrage' …. | |
16/03/17 | Royal Assent to bill to initiate Article 50 | Theresa May to initiate by end of March | |
17/03/17 | £ remains weak against all major currencies; FTSE 100 at new all-time high of 7,445 | Cost of imports and overseas travel set to rise and inflation to increase … | |
20/03/17 | Institute for Government analyses the Great Repeal Bill and the wider legislative challenge | Notes pressure on both Government and Parliament to ensure smooth flow of primary and secondary legislation by due dates … | |
20/03/17 | Theresa May announces date for Article 50 notification; Tim Barrow advises Donald Tusk | Article 50 letter to be sent on 29/03/17 | |
20/03/17 | ETUC publishes statement adopted in Malta Conference 15-16/03/17 on UK notification under Article 50 | Calls for UK to remain in Single Market and Customs Union to protect living standards, jobs and rights of workers | |
21/03/17 | UK inflation reaches 2.1%; £ strengthens | Concerns over cost of living, income squeeze | |
21/03/17 | Donald Tusk advises initial response by 31/03/17 with EU Summit planned 29/04/17 | UK excluded; timing difficult with elections in France, influence on outcome unclear … | |
21/03/17 | EP DG IMCO publishes CEPS assessment of the Economic Impact of Brexit on the EU27 by Michael Emerson and others | Detailed analysis concludes that aggregate losses to EU 27 would be insignificant - and for the UK highly significant but with some special cases (Ireland) and sectors affected | |
23/03/17 | Current Date | ||
25/03/17 | European Council meeting and 60th Anniversary of Signing of Rome Treaty | 'Inappropriate' for Theresa May to attend … | |
26/03/17 | Parliamentary Election in Bulgaria | ||
29/03/17 | Theresa May to give formal Article 50 notification of desire of UK to leave EU | As announced 20/03/17 | |
31/03/17 | Commission and Council circulate initial response to Article 50 | As announced 21/03/17 | |
31/03/17 | Final proposed deadline for Article 50 notification of UK desire to leave EU | As previously announced | |
04/17 | Possible EP resolution on Brexit negotiation | ||
23/04/17 | First round of Presidential election in France | ||
29/04/17 | EU Summit to discuss Article 50 notification | Key meeting to set tone of negotiations … | |
07/05/17 | Run-off in Presidential Election in France | Change in leadership and role of key MS | |
31/05/17 | End of 1st Council mandate for Donald Tusk | Now confirmed in role for 2nd Mandate | |
09/17 | Parliamentary Elections in Germany | Potential change to key MS/EU leadership?? | |
10/17 | Parliamentary Elections in Czech Republic | Indication of Visegrad priorities for EU?? | |
/18 | Elections in at least 10 EU Member States?? Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Hungary, Italy, Luxembourg, Malta, Slovenia, Sweden …. | ||
31/09/18 | Latest date for completion of UK/Commission negotiations … | Now recognised and confirmed by all parties | |
31/12/18 | Latest practical date for completion of UK/Commission negotiations?? | Assuming Article 50 invoked in March 2017 and timetable extended by mutual agreement | |
/19 | Elections in at least 10 EU Member States?? Belgium, Denmark, Finland, Greece, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia …. | ||
03/19 | Latest practical date for EP approval for Brexit proposal - with/without UK MEPs | Assuming Article 50 invoked in March 2017 | |
05/19 | European Parliament elections | Presumably without UK nominations?? | |
07/19 | New European Parliament inaugurated | Presumably without UK MEPs?? | |
08/19 | Earliest practical date for adoption of UK/EU agreement?? UK membership of EU/EP/EESC/CoR ends | Assuming Article 50 invoked in March 2017 and negotiations with Commission completed by September (or December) 2018 | |
09/19 | UK starts to negotiate external trade deals | Assuming EU negotiations completed and status of single market access for UK and membership of customs union defined and cost and technical problems resolved … | |
31/10/19 | End 2nd Council mandate for Donald Tusk End of mandate for EU Commission | Donald Tusk replaced at end of 2nd mandate Jean-Claude Juncker will not stand again | |
12/19 | EESC nominations start for next mandate | ||
01/20 | Earliest practical date for new EP approval of Brexit proposal - without UK MEPs?? | If no agreement approved by 03/19 | |
03/20 | Earliest practical date for adoption of UK/EU agreement?? UK membership of EU/EP/EESC/CoR ends | If no agreement reached and approved by 08/19 | |
05/20 | Due date for General Election in UK | Assuming no early election in 2017 | |
09/20 | EESC 2015-2020 mandate ends | Without delegates from the UK?? | |
10/20 | EESC 2020-2025 mandate starts | Without delegates from the UK | |
To be continued ….. | |||